Since October 2023, Israel has conducted one of the most destructive campaigns in Gaza’s history, leading to the deaths of tens of thousands of civilians and a total collapse of critical infrastructure. But this war has not been limited to Gaza. Over the same period, Israel has conducted airstrikes in Lebanon targeting Hezbollah positions, hit military sites in Syria under the justification of Iranian influence, and engaged in covert operations against Iranian officials and nuclear scientists, some of whom were assassinated, reportedly by Mossad.
These actions are often framed as a response to external threats or national security concerns. However, many analysts argue that they form part of a deliberate strategy: to engage multiple regional fronts simultaneously to stretch international attention, overwhelm diplomatic bandwidth, and prevent sustained scrutiny on any single front.
This strategy may serve an even more focused internal goal. While the world fixates on Israel’s visible wars, something less dramatic but potentially more consequential is taking place in Jerusalem: a slow, strategic shift in control over Al-Aqsa Mosque, one of the most contested and revered religious sites in the world.
Why Al-Aqsa Is Not Just Another Flashpoint
Al-Aqsa Mosque, located within the Old City of Jerusalem, holds deep religious and political significance. It is Islam’s third-holiest site, the place from which the Prophet Muhammad ﷺ ascended to the heavens during the miraculous night journey (Isra and Mi’raj). The mosque is explicitly mentioned in the Qur’an and has been a spiritual center for Muslims for over a millennium.
However, Al-Aqsa is not only a sacred space. It is also a symbol of Palestinian identity, resistance, and sovereignty. Whoever controls Al-Aqsa controls not just a piece of land, but also the narrative around Jerusalem itself. For Palestinians, the defense of Al-Aqsa is inseparable from their struggle for self-determination. For Israel’s far-right, the site represents the culmination of an eschatological vision rooted in religious Zionism.
What’s Happening on the Ground?
Over the past four years, violations at Al-Aqsa have increased in both frequency and severity. During the holy month of Ramadan, Israeli police have stormed the mosque on multiple occasions, attacking worshippers, barring Muslim access, and facilitating settler incursions into the compound. These actions breach long-standing agreements designed to preserve the status quo.
Israeli officials often describe these events as security operations. In practice, however, they normalize a pattern of militarized control over a sacred site. Each incident shifts the baseline of what is considered acceptable. What used to spark international outrage now passes with minimal comment.
In parallel, Jewish extremist groups such as those affiliated with the Temple Institute have grown bolder in their ambitions. These groups openly call for the demolition of Al-Aqsa and the construction of a Third Temple in its place. While such rhetoric was once considered fringe, it has now found support among key figures within Israel’s government.
From Ideology to Implementation
In 2024, Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir visited the Al-Aqsa compound and declared, “It’s ours and ours alone.” His statement was not a one-off. It reflected a broader political shift in which religious Zionist ideologies are no longer marginal but are shaping government policy.
State-backed organizations like the Temple Institute have received funding to produce ritual objects for future temple ceremonies. Red heifers have been imported to fulfill purification rites described in Jewish texts, and rabbis are actively training a new priestly class. These developments are not theoretical or symbolic—they are procedural and preparatory.
The implications are stark. Israel is not only undermining the current status quo but laying logistical foundations for a new religious reality in Jerusalem. And it is doing so at a time when the world’s focus is largely elsewhere.
The Role of Regional Conflict as a Cover
Political analyst Zahide Tuba Kor, speaking to TRT World, stated: “This is the most favorable moment they’ve had in decades.” She argues that Israel’s broader military engagements allow it to act more aggressively in East Jerusalem with minimal pushback.
When global media attention is fixated on Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, or Iran, actions at Al-Aqsa receive far less coverage. This creates a perfect environment for incremental—but—permanent changes. Some experts fear that in the fog of war, Israel may even stage an incident at Al-Aqsa, blame it on external enemies, and use the chaos to justify a decisive takeover.
Such fears are not far-fetched. Similar strategies have been employed in the past.
Lessons from Hebron: The Ibrahimi Mosque Precedent
In 1994, an Israeli settler named Baruch Goldstein massacred 29 Palestinian worshippers at the Ibrahimi Mosque in Hebron. Rather than restricting settler presence, the Israeli government responded by dividing the mosque into separate Muslim and Jewish sections. Today, 63% of the mosque is controlled by Israeli settlers, and Muslim access is tightly restricted.
Analysts warn that Al-Aqsa could face a similar fate, where violence leads not to justice, but to re-engineered control on the ground. What begins as a “security measure” can quickly become a permanent reconfiguration.
Lawfare, Courts, and Normalization
Israeli courts increasingly rule in favor of settler groups and reinterpret existing laws to justify changes at religious sites. These legal maneuvers are used to give a façade of legitimacy to what are effectively acts of occupation.
Meanwhile, the rise of normalization agreements with Arab states, including the UAE, Bahrain, and exploratory talks with Saudi Arabia, has significantly reduced diplomatic pressure on Israel. Governments that once condemned Israeli actions now engage in trade and defense deals, often issuing only symbolic statements in response to violations in Jerusalem.
This new political landscape emboldens Israel to act with fewer consequences, especially in East Jerusalem.
What’s at Stake for Al-Aqsa and Beyond?
If the current trajectory continues, the following outcomes are increasingly likely:
- Muslim access to Al-Aqsa will become more restricted
- The site may be physically divided, mirroring Hebron
- Temple Mount activists could establish de facto control over parts of the compound
- Palestinian religious leadership may be replaced by Israeli-approved authorities
- Al-Aqsa’s symbolic value as a unifying cause for Muslims may gradually erode
A Wake-Up Call
The threat to Al-Aqsa is not a conspiracy or a distant possibility. It is active, deliberate, and unfolding in real time. Behind the smoke of regional conflict, East Jerusalem is being reshaped not only politically, but spiritually.
The international community, and especially the Muslim world, must recognize that the struggle for Al-Aqsa is not just a Palestinian issue. It is a matter of collective dignity, heritage, and sovereignty.
If global attention remains fixed on war zones while ignoring sacred spaces, we may wake up to a new status quo in which Al-Aqsa, long a symbol of resistance and unity, stands occupied, divided, and redefined under a new ideological order.